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Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?

Resolved: Yes 44d ago

The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$808k
Liquidity$111k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
How the odds moved · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
0%50%100%100%19 Sept, 22:22 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
23 Sept, 18:25 UTC100%
23 Sept, 16:35 UTC100%
23 Sept, 15:10 UTC100%
23 Sept, 14:54 UTC100%
23 Sept, 13:00 UTC100%
23 Sept, 12:31 UTC100%
23 Sept, 09:28 UTC100%
23 Sept, 03:22 UTC100%
23 Sept, 01:06 UTC100%
22 Sept, 23:41 UTC100%
22 Sept, 22:15 UTC100%
22 Sept, 15:04 UTC100%
22 Sept, 12:20 UTC100%
22 Sept, 10:08 UTC100%
22 Sept, 08:22 UTC100%
22 Sept, 05:48 UTC100%
22 Sept, 02:20 UTC100%
22 Sept, 01:06 UTC100%
21 Sept, 21:46 UTC100%
21 Sept, 21:16 UTC99%
21 Sept, 17:09 UTC100%
21 Sept, 16:56 UTC100%
21 Sept, 15:36 UTC100%
21 Sept, 15:29 UTC100%
21 Sept, 13:24 UTC100%
21 Sept, 11:23 UTC100%
21 Sept, 10:44 UTC100%
21 Sept, 09:56 UTC100%
21 Sept, 08:24 UTC100%
21 Sept, 07:28 UTC99%
21 Sept, 06:57 UTC97%
21 Sept, 06:19 UTC96%
21 Sept, 05:55 UTC97%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC97%
21 Sept, 04:00 UTC96%
21 Sept, 02:55 UTC96%
21 Sept, 02:27 UTC97%
21 Sept, 01:48 UTC96%
21 Sept, 00:24 UTC96%
20 Sept, 23:24 UTC96%
20 Sept, 21:07 UTC96%
20 Sept, 20:54 UTC96%
20 Sept, 20:03 UTC96%
20 Sept, 19:47 UTC96%
20 Sept, 16:29 UTC96%
20 Sept, 15:43 UTC95%
20 Sept, 15:17 UTC96%
20 Sept, 14:41 UTC97%
20 Sept, 14:24 UTC95%
20 Sept, 13:24 UTC96%
20 Sept, 12:17 UTC96%
20 Sept, 11:55 UTC96%
20 Sept, 11:07 UTC96%
20 Sept, 10:56 UTC95%
20 Sept, 10:21 UTC95%
20 Sept, 09:35 UTC95%
20 Sept, 09:27 UTC95%
20 Sept, 07:46 UTC95%
20 Sept, 06:58 UTC94%
20 Sept, 06:25 UTC95%
20 Sept, 04:33 UTC95%
20 Sept, 04:26 UTC95%
20 Sept, 03:56 UTC95%
20 Sept, 03:17 UTC95%
20 Sept, 02:41 UTC95%
20 Sept, 01:51 UTC95%
20 Sept, 01:01 UTC95%
19 Sept, 23:58 UTC95%
19 Sept, 23:25 UTC95%
19 Sept, 22:48 UTC95%
19 Sept, 22:22 UTC96%

What counts

The outcome is Yes if Xi Jinping physically enters US land or water before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if he does not enter that territory within the deadline. Readers often mistake flying over US airspace for a visit, but only physical entry onto land or water counts.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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