Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5
The market favoured Under at 59% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$898k
Total volume$859k
Liquidity$260k
Resolved24 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Oct, 09:36 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The Over outcome requires Aston Villa and Manchester City to score four or more goals combined during regular play plus stoppage time. The Under outcome applies if their total is fewer than four goals. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the market relies on official Premier League statistics rather than live updates or other sports sites.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Over 0%
- Under 100%
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