Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
The market favoured Yes at 68% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved8 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 03:57 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 22:53 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 59% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Nov, 15:46 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 13:54 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 09:15 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 07:18 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 06:01 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 68% |
| 31 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 27% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lewis Hamilton finishes in the top three positions of the official Final Classification for the race. The resolution depends solely on the FIA's published classification, which includes time penalties and adjustments. Readers often mistake the podium ceremony timing or post-classification disqualifications as determining factors.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →