Spread: Broncos (-4.5)
The market favoured Broncos at 51% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$707k
Total volume$728k
Liquidity$399k
Resolved25 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 100% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Oct, 17:15 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 50% |
| 22 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 49% |
What counts
The Broncos outcome occurs if they win by five points or more. The Cardinals outcome applies if they win or if the Broncos win by four points or fewer. Readers often mistake the margin, forgetting that a four-point victory counts for the Cardinals.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Broncos 100%
- Cardinals 0%
View this market on Polymarket →