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Viktor Orbán arrested by...?

Implied probability 14%−6
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$106k
Liquidity$42k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Viktor Orbán arrested by...?
0%50%100%14%20 Oct, 05:47 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now14%
26 Oct, 15:39 UTC14%
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Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is taken into physical custody, detained, or placed under house arrest by law enforcement authorities on or before December 31, 2026. It resolves to "No" if no such action occurs within that timeframe, regardless of whether an arrest warrant is issued or he is merely questioned.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 14%
  • No 86%

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